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Blog Entry

The Magic Gambit: Orlando should trade for Paul

Posted on: December 1, 2011 10:04 pm
Edited on: December 2, 2011 10:36 am
 


By Matt Moore
  

Here we are, once again. A small market team reportedly held hostage by their franchise player All-Star and his desire to be traded to the specific team he wants, or else he'll simply depart the home team in free agency, leaving them with nothing. Carmelo Anthony hijacked Denver's season last year, and now Chris Paul is reportedly in a position to do the same to New Orleans. Except when Anthony applied extortion to get his way to Broadway, the Knicks actually had assets to trade to Denver, including Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov, and Raymond Felton (who eventually became Andre Miller and a pick).

The Knicks now? Not so much.

The Hornets face an impossible position shold they elect to trade Paul. The teams that have the kind of assets to make the trade worth it if Paul elects to state he will only sign with the Knicks (which as Ken Berger notes, he has not done yet) have the kind of market cache to not need to make such a desperate move, or have no shot at a championship and therefore no reason to risk it all.

A team with young players and picks won't waste them to rent Chris Paul for a season, only to watch him walk out the door. After all, there's only one New Jersey Nets out there. (Kidding, Nets fans! D-Will says you're still under consideration!) And teams with superstar talent like Boston or Los Angeles don't have to gamble to win a title. They can just wait on the next superstar available (or just go after Dwight Howard).

So as it stands, the Hornets have no alternative. They'll just have to take whatever the Knicks are offering. There's talk of just letting Paul walk to avoid the embarrassment of taking on the Knicks' garbage heap, but that's nonsense. You don't accept a loss when you can have a gain. Chauncey Billups and Toney Douglas and a pick in 2045 is better than nothing at all.

But... there is another option. It's outside the box. You're going to think I'm nuts. And I'm not prone to posting about trade ideas. There's another site with a trade machine. You can fill your day with moving every player in the league. Everyone partakes from time to time. But this concept? It's the best possible move for both teams.

Orlando needs to trade for Chris Paul.

Hear me out before you close this browser as fast as humanly possible.

The Magic have every reason to trade for Chris Paul without the promise of an extension. With no consideration of the extension, there's nothing to hold up a deal. The Magic are facing the same cliff the Hornets are, staring down the barrell of Dwight Howard's big-market shotgun. They are burdened with pieces which hold no value once Howard is traded. If Howard leaves, they will wind up with a huge amount of salary and no superstar, a terrible team with a supporting structure holding up nothing. They have two options. Win a championship this year or give up and trade Howard for nothing now. Even a move for Andrew Bogut as Berger has said will be discussed won't keep them in title contention. That's what Howard means to a team. That's what an MVP candidate means.

So the only thing left, as the movie quote goes, is to win the whole friggin' thing. (OK, that's not the line, but it's a family site.)

The Magic would trade some combination of Brandon Bass, J.J. Redick, Ryan Anderson, Daniel Orton, and Jameer Nelson to the Hornets for Paul, along with a first-round pick in 2012. That's right. The Magic could lose both Dwight Howard and Chris Paul for 2013 and have no first-round pick. Disastrous-sounding, I know. Here's why they do the deal.

Here's the best case scenario. Howard and Paul,playing with another star, the best at their position, along with the supporting pieces in Orlando which would still be better than what the Knicks are likely to trot out onto the court (I'd like to remind you that Jared Jeffries started at center in the playoffs for the Knicks), would likely have the best seasons of their careers if healthy. Versus the trio in Miami or the duet in New York, Howard and Paul are a combination of players who actually mesh together. The best pick and roll center in the league with the best pick and roll point guard. A hyper-efficient perimeter shooter with a center who draws doubles every time on the block. A ball-hawking point guard who can create steals and the best defensive presence in the league. It may not be better than Miami or L.A., but it would be a force to be reckoned with. One season to make a run at the title.

This is the reality of the new NBA. If you want to win a title as a small-market, you have to find lightning in a bottle. Maybe there's no way to even that gap thanks to the inherent draws of bigger markets with more flashbulbs, television appearances, parties and endorsement offers. But if you don't have a once-in-his-lifetime talent and get absurdly lucky along the way, this is your best shot. Mortgage everything on one season.

If it works, and the Magic take home the title, the Paul and Howard will have gone through the transformitive process of winning a title together. Fans in Orlando will worship them. Howard will have done what Shaq never has. And they'll be staring at the possibility of not playing together next year. Even if that's not enough to get them to stay, it'll make them think twice. It's Orlando's best shot. There can be no more "really, Dwight, we'll get it right next time" with Howard. His patience has run out. If they don't win the title, there's no chance he returns. There's little chance even if they do, but it's their best shot, and if they win the title, they get that forever. You can't take that title away from the fans, away from the franchise, away from the team.

And if it doesn't work, if they don't win the title? That's over $34 million in cap space expiring for Orlando. Along with the amnesty of Gilbert Arenas, that's $54 million. That's nearly the NBA salary cap they would be gaining in cap space. The typical response to that is "what does it matter, no one will sign there." From that point on, the objective is not to bring in free agents, it's to rebuild through the draft. That 2012 pick missing is a problem? Not really, because Paul and Howard could give 50 percent effort (something they would never do) and still win 40 games, even in the East. The Magic won't have a lottery pick regardless. Which means the pick holds no value to them, but quite a bit to New Orleans. The Magic would be in premium position to tank in 2013, then rebuild through the draft. It's not appealing. You know what's less appealing? Trying to rebuild with Andrew Bynum's decision making, knees, contract, and nothing else. The key when your title run is over is to start over as completely as possible, as quickly as possible. This plan lets them out.

But what about New Orleans? Jameer Nelson, with $15.6 million remaining over two years? Brandon Bass with $8 million? J.J. Redick with over $12 million? What's the upside for them, along with a pick that won't be good? For starters, it's better than what they'll get from New York. It lets them avoid being bullied by the Knicks for nothing. And it's not about what those players give the Hornets, it's what they bring individually on the market. A team in need of a power forward who can score? Bass is a great pickup for a cheap draft pick and an expiring. Teams in desperate need of a shooter? J.J. Redick. Starting point guard gone down with an injury? Call up the Hornets. Jameer Nelson is on the block. It's a flip project. You don't get the pieces to start over, you get the pieces you can use to get the pieces to start over. It's the best way to do exactly the same thing the Magic would be doing. Tanking to start over and hopefully get that All-Star Hall of Famer who doesn't adore the bright lights.

This lets them both out of the pain, it gets the gun off of them. It gives them the dignity. Orlando gets to contend for one more year, the Hornets get to start moving forward now. The Magic go all-in, the Hornets fold and save their chips for a time when the flop doesn't come down so wretched.

Big markets are squeezing the talent out of small markets. But those small markets get to decide how it goes down.
Comments

Since: Feb 22, 2012
Posted on: February 22, 2012 9:34 am
 

The Magic Gambit: Orlando should trade for Paul

 No, If Orlando was smart they would try to trade Dwight Howard, Turkoglu (salary dump) and JJ Redick for Carmelo and Amare (best scenario for them in my opinion-they get a town kid and a star-throw in whatever pick additional sub-par players i.e., "do what-you do Douglas some where else" players lol). Orlando is in need not NY so, NY has the upper-hand in negotiations as far as trading value for additional assets.

I'm surprised Orlando is not seeing what is about to happen to them. They are about to make the same mistake twice and that is what you call "stubbornness".

Orlando is toying around with trades/or speculations that really don't bring back equal value (best one I've seen so far is the Bulls trade of Deng, Noah Boozer for Dwight, JJ and Turkoglu-I don't even think that actually works). Nonetheless, it just goes to show you how much certain teams are against making valuable trades with the Knicks.

Again, the Knicks are good as is so, just surprised Orlando is not knocking on the Knicks door (who knows, maybe they are behind closed doors)?

Both Orlando and NY would benefit by replacing its stars and bringing in players that better into the coaching style of play. Let's face it, Dwight is better going for alley-oops and screening off for the pick and rolls then, being a back-to-the basket player (he's grown as a player with the help of Ewing, but that really isn't his strength or game, it's Ewing's lol-watch the "Redeem Team Olympics" as a perfect example of Howard and Chandler playing together)!

Anyway, if you think lob city in LA imagine, Dwight as the PF and Chandler as the Center in NY (beastly-"Twin City part II")!!!!

Successful Trade Scenario:
Due to New York and Orlando being over the cap, the 25% trade rule is invoked. New York and Orlando had to be no more than 125% plus $100,000 of the salary given out for the trade to be accepted, which did happen here. This trade satisfies the provisions of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Change in Team Outlook:+3.1 ppg,+7.5 rpg, and +3.1 apg.
Incoming Players:

Dwight Howard
26 year old , 6-11, 240 lb F-C from Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy (Georgia)
20.3 ppg, 15.3 rpg, 2.0 apg in 38.4 minutes

Hedo Turkoglu
32.5 year old , 6-10, 220 lb F from Anadolu Efes (Turkey)
11.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.5 apg in 30.8 minutes

J.J. Redick
27.5 year old , 6-4, 190 lb G from Duke
11.2 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.1 apg in 25.7 minutes

Outgoing Players:

Carmelo Anthony
27.5 year old , 6-8, 230 lb F from Syracuse
21.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.3 apg in 34.4 minutes in 2011-2012

Amar'e Stoudemire
29 year old , 6-10, 245 lb F-C from Cypress Creek High School (Florida)
18.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.3 apg in 34.2 minutes in 2011-2012

Orlando Magic Trade Breakdown:

Change in Team Outlook:-3.1 ppg,-7.5 rpg, and -3.1 apg.
Incoming Players:

Carmelo Anthony
27.5 year old , 6-8, 230 lb F from Syracuse
21.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.3 apg in 34.4 minutes

Amar'e Stoudemire
29 year old , 6-10, 245 lb F-C from Cypress Creek High School (Florida)
18.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.3 apg in 34.2 minutes

Outgoing Players:

Dwight Howard
26 year old , 6-11, 240 lb F-C from Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy (Georgia)
20.3 ppg, 15.3 rpg, 2.0 apg in 38.4 minutes in 2011-2012

Hedo Turkoglu
32.5 year old , 6-10, 220 lb F from Anadolu Efes (Turkey)
11.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.5 apg in 30.8 minutes in 2011-2012

J.J. Redick
27.5 year old , 6-4, 190 lb G from Duke
11.2 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.1 apg in 25.7 minutes in 2011-2012

Best trade of value Orlando is going to get back from a team ( "broke down Bynum/another Oden waiting to happen" and "come on Brook Lopez, seriously?" is not going to cut it)!



Since: Feb 22, 2012
Posted on: February 22, 2012 8:33 am
 

The Magic Gambit: Orlando should trade for Paul

No, If Orlando was smart they would try to trade Dwight Howard, Turkoglu (salary dump) and JJ Redick for Carmelo and Amare (best scenario for them in my opinion-they get a home town kid and a star-throw in whatever pick additional sub-par players i.e., "do what-you do Douglas some where else" players lol). Orlando is in need not NY so, NY has the upper-hand in negotiations as far as trading value for additional assets.

I'm surprised Orlando is not seeing what is about to happen to them. They are about to make the same mistake twice and that is what you call "stubbornness".

Orlando is toying around with trades/or speculations that really don't bring back equal value (best one I've seen so far is the Bulls trade of Deng, Noah Boozer for Dwight, JJ and Turkoglu-I don't even think that actually works). Nonetheless, it just goes to show you how much certain teams are against making valuable trades with the Knicks.

Again, the Knicks are good as is so, just surprised Orlando is not knocking on the Knicks door (who knows, maybe they are behind closed doors)?


Both Orlando and NY would benefit by replacing its stars and bringing in players that fit better into the coaching style of play. Let's face it, Dwight is better going for alley-oops and screening off for the pick and rolls then, being a back-to-the basket player (he's grown as a player with the help of Ewing, but that really isn't his strength or game, it's Ewing's lol-watch the "Redeem Team Olympics" as a perfect example of Howard and Chandler playing together)!

Anyway, if you think lob city looks good in LA imagine, Dwight as the PF and Chandler as the Center in NY (beastly-"Twin City part II")!!!!


Successful Trade Scenario:
Due to New York and Orlando being over the cap, the 25% trade rule is invoked. New York and Orlando had to be no more than 125% plus $100,000 of the salary given out for the trade to be accepted, which did happen here. This trade satisfies the provisions of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Change in Team Outlook: +3.1 ppg, +7.5 rpg, and +3.1 apg.
Incoming Players:

Dwight Howard
26 year old , 6-11, 240 lb F-C from Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy (Georgia)
20.3 ppg, 15.3 rpg, 2.0 apg in 38.4 minutes

Hedo Turkoglu
32.5 year old , 6-10, 220 lb F from Anadolu Efes (Turkey)
11.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.5 apg in 30.8 minutes

J.J. Redick
27.5 year old , 6-4, 190 lb G from Duke
11.2 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.1 apg in 25.7 minutes

Outgoing Players:

Carmelo Anthony
27.5 year old , 6-8, 230 lb F from Syracuse
21.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.3 apg in 34.4 minutes in 2011-2012

Amar'e Stoudemire
29 year old , 6-10, 245 lb F-C from Cypress Creek High School (Florida)
18.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.3 apg in 34.2 minutes in 2011-2012

Orlando Magic Trade Breakdown:

Change in Team Outlook: -3.1 ppg, -7.5 rpg, and -3.1 apg.
Incoming Players:

Carmelo Anthony
27.5 year old , 6-8, 230 lb F from Syracuse
21.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.3 apg in 34.4 minutes

Amar'e Stoudemire
29 year old , 6-10, 245 lb F-C from Cypress Creek High School (Florida)
18.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.3 apg in 34.2 minutes

Outgoing Players:

Dwight Howard
26 year old , 6-11, 240 lb F-C from Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy (Georgia)
20.3 ppg, 15.3 rpg, 2.0 apg in 38.4 minutes in 2011-2012

Hedo Turkoglu
32.5 year old , 6-10, 220 lb F from Anadolu Efes (Turkey)
11.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.5 apg in 30.8 minutes in 2011-2012

J.J. Redick
27.5 year old , 6-4, 190 lb G from Duke
11.2 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.1 apg in 25.7 minutes in 2011-2012

Best trade of value Orlando is going to get back from a team ( "broke down Bynum/another Oden waiting to happen" and "come on Brook Lopez, seriously?" is not going to cut it)!





Since: Dec 4, 2011
Posted on: December 4, 2011 12:00 pm
 

The Magic Gambit: Orlando should trade for Paul

To those wondering why don't the the Hornets trade for Dwight, they don't have anyone that the Magic can flip. Read the article, New Orleans can flip Nelson, Bass, Redick, and Anderson. The Hornets could not get the Magic 2012 first pick however, since the Magic traded last year's and by NBA rules have to draft next season. However, the players already listed above could potentially turn into late first picks from contenders(like say the Lakers asking for Nelson, the Bulls asking for Redick) and then they would have a plethora of first round picks in a deep draft. Orlando would not be able to trade Okafor, Ariza or anyone else the Hornets could trade for Dwight. That is why Paul would get traded to Orlando.



Since: Dec 3, 2011
Posted on: December 3, 2011 8:23 pm
 

The Magic Gambit: Orlando should trade for Paul

WHERE"S THE BEEF?!?    THE HORNETS ARE SUPPOSED TO TRADE AN ALL STAR FOR A HANDFUL OF "GOOD" PLAYERS? IT"S EXACTLY TRADES LIKE THIS THAT KEEP THE SMALL MARKET TEAMS WHINING! WOULD PAUL SIGN AN EXTENSION HAVING TO FACE THE MIAMI HEAT IN THE SAME DIVISION FOR YEARS? WOULD DWIGHT CONSIDER THIS ENOUGH TO CONTEND WITH MIAMI...ENOUGH TO STAY? DWIGHT HOWARD'S BEST OPTION IS TO GO TO THE LAKERS!  KOBE, PAU + DWIGHT=B-L-I-N-G THE LAKERS NEW T.V. CONTRACT PROVIDES MEGA REVENUE, THE REVITALIZED CONVENTION CENTER AND FARMER'S FIELD WILL BRING MORE MONEY, NOTORIETY AND OPPORTUNITIES  TO THE CITY! DWIGHT CAN FOLLOW THE LEGACY OF MIKAN,WILT,KAREEM & SHAQ, AND CREATE HIS OWN PLACE IN L.A. HISTORY!



Since: Jul 8, 2011
Posted on: December 2, 2011 11:46 pm
 

The Magic Gambit: Orlando should trade for Paul

I like this trade so long as Orlando keeps Brandon Bass. They need some kind of scoring threat inside besides Howard to help minimize the effectiveness of the inevitable double teams on Howard.



Since: Mar 23, 2008
Posted on: December 2, 2011 6:51 pm
 

The Magic Gambit: Orlando should trade for Paul

"The Magic would trade some combination of , , , , and to the Hornets for Paul"

So your point is that the magic without dwight would have lousy pieces they'd have to wear out the phones trying to get rid of and... the hornets would like to trade their superstar for those lousy pieces and the job of flipping them for a couple second round picks.  You get paid for coming up with ideas like that?



Since: Nov 17, 2006
Posted on: December 2, 2011 6:35 pm
 

The Magic Gambit: Orlando should trade for Paul

If Orlando can trade for Chris Paul with nothing on its roster worth acquiring, how come New Orleans can't acquire Dwight with nothing on its roster worth acquiring? 



Since: Apr 14, 2010
Posted on: December 2, 2011 6:11 pm
 

The Magic Gambit: Orlando should trade for Paul

I'd love it, GET IT DONE ANYWAY YOU CAN OTIS!!!!.  Jameer's my fav player besides D12, but damn it trade him to get Paul.



Since: Oct 29, 2007
Posted on: December 2, 2011 6:00 pm
 

The Magic Gambit: Orlando should trade for Paul

In my view, this is a great idea.  With Howard and Paul, others would want to come to Orlando at lower prices to have a chance for a ring (witness Miami, etc.).  West would likely want to follow from Hornets and finding a few shooters and role players should not be a huge problem.  Further, I don't believe it would be a one time and out arrangement.  Orlando fans have been great for quite some time and it is not Milwaukee, Minnesota or Toronto.  The weather is great and there is much to do.  No income tax would only be an added bonus.



Since: Aug 17, 2007
Posted on: December 2, 2011 5:35 pm
 

The Magic Gambit: Orlando should trade for Paul

What would Howard to New Orleans look like?  What can the Hornets offer the Magic?



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